“Who started the fire?...that’s the question” said Andy Burnham after Russia accused him of adding fuel to the fire of the war in Ukraine. New Prime Minister, same policy.
Giving permission and blueprints for Ukraine to start building its own versions of the Storm Shadow missile does mean British support for long range attacks on Russia.
This will almost certainly mean civilian casualties if Ukraine uses them - not just for military targets - but also to attack the kind of economic infrastructure it has been successfully hitting with long range drones.
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Oil refineries and Wildberries, Russia’s equivalent of Amazon, have already taken several hits. Now Ukraine has turned to attacking another similar business Ozon, as it tries to take the war to the Russian people.
‘We are with you’
Russia’s answer to Burnham’s question of course is “you did.” Moscow’s claim remains that EU and Nato expansionism towards Ukraine were provocation for its invasion - something also argued over the years by various in the Trump administration and Nigel Farage in Britain.
Standing in Kyiv on its Independence Day, on his first foreign trip since taking power, Andy Burnham declared, “we are with you in this struggle all the way” and he dismissed the Russian threats of consequences for Britain.
The UK government has long acknowledged the hybrid war involving cyber attacks and deep sea surveys that Russia is already waging here, and the diplomatic relationship between London and Moscow is already at a deep low.
The Russian Ambassador has left his post and is currently not replaced. Over the last year or so, going for my regular interviews with Andrei Kelin at the Russian Embassy in Kensington, it was increasingly clear that he wasn’t doing much diplomacy in London.
The role seemed reduced to being called into the Foreign Office for a brusque telling off, and giving interviews to the media. When I spoke to the new Foreign Office Minister Lord Wood today about what the threat from Russia of “consequences” might mean, he said he didn’t know, but was similarly dismissive.
What difference will it make?
In fact the question for Burnham is ‘what difference will it make?’ (there’s always a Smiths song title for this PM).
Does his promise of change at home extend at all to his foreign policy? Or is the approach still of ‘boiling the frog’ - gradually turning up the heat on Russia, hoping Vladimir Putin will come to his senses?
Ever since 2022 President Zelenskyy has asked his friends around the world for military and financial help. Ever since it has come just enough to keep Ukraine afloat, and a little better equipped than before, but too little and too late to make a decisive difference on the battlefield for fear of what Putin might do if pushed into a corner.
Right now Ukraine needs missile interceptors to protect its civilian population in the big cities from Russia missiles. And it needs cash. It is asking for both but neither is coming in sufficient numbers. The war in Iran has meant Patriot missiles are in short supply, and Ukraine is suffering because of it.
Real issue is Trump
Of course the real issue, as ever, is Trump and his withdrawal from the whole question of Ukraine.
The man who promised to end the war in a day is today nowhere to be seen on the matter, preoccupied with Iran and matters domestic.
Europe has had to step in where possible on both military and financial aid for Ukraine where the Americans have backed off. But its resources are severely limited. Trump shows no sign of trying to turn the heat up on Putin economically the way he is trying with sanctions against Iran.
The American position still seems to be one of waiting for Ukraine to back down and accept the loss of territory that a peace deal would mean. But Ukraine always argued that any peace would only be temporary, as Russia would always come back for more, and that seems more plausible now than ever.
Losses that would be devastating in the West remain tolerated by Russia’s leader. Zelenskyy claimed today that more than 150,000 Russian soldiers have been killed this year so far.
No sign of a resolution
Whatever the truth of the figure it is bound to be in the many thousands, and if that hasn’t deterred Putin from escalation, it is hard to see what else will.
Today has some meaning, in that it shows enduring resolve from Britain and the rest of the Coalition of the Willing to continue to support Ukraine.
But Zelenskyy - though endlessly grateful - is still not getting what he really wants or needs from his allies, and right now we are still staring at months, perhaps years, ahead of civilian and military deaths in both Ukraine and Russia, and no sign of either a military or diplomatic resolution.
Excellent piece of journalism as always from Krishnan
Good to see and hear. Ukraine is fighting and dying for us.