How drones and AI are turning the tide in Ukraine war
In the Ukrainian city of Kherson, some residents remain despite the constant danger of drone strikes. But the tide is starting to turn against Russia and AI has a part to play, writes Lindsey Hilsum.
I met the Ukrainian photojournalist and soldier, Oleksandr Tolokonnikov, in the front line city of Kherson back in 2023.
Russian forces were firing artillery from the opposite bank of the Dnieper River. When we needed to drive along a road in their sights, the only advice was to go like the clappers.
Oleksandr - a solidly-built young man in a green t-shirt and fatigues, now promoted to Deputy Head of Kherson Regional Military Administration - was in London this week, giving a series of talks about the city, which has become even more dangerous in the interim.
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Russia launches 950 drones into Kherson every day. Ukraine manages to intercept 90 per cent of them, but life is nonetheless pretty hellish.
Most Kherson residents left long ago, but some - mainly old people - remain, despite the constant danger of being killed and injured.
‘Dying because they’re staying’
“We tell people to leave, but we can’t force them,” Oleksandr said. “They’re dying because they’re staying.”
He saw it as a moral problem.
“Often, the electricity goes in a little place along the river. We send response teams who are attacked. What should I say to the family of a response worker who is killed for 10 people who refuse to leave?”
The Ukrainian authorities have got used to such dilemmas. The answer to this one is to encourage people to leave, but if they don’t, provide what support is possible.
Tide starting to turn
Now the war is throwing up even more ethical dilemmas, not least because the tide is beginning - just beginning - to turn against the Russians. The reason for that is not just drones, but artificial intelligence.
In recent months, Ukraine has developed drone technology that enables “middle strikes,” up to 300 kilometres behind the front line.
“This primarily includes enemy military logistics, depots and command posts, air defence systems, and other components of Russia’s offensive activity against Ukraine,” explained Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in late April.
“This year, we have already contracted five times more middle-strike capabilities than last year, and we will continue to scale up contracting and production.”
The Ukrainians have also targeted Russian oil refineries and Moscow, using new, longer-range drones.
Autonomous drones
Some of the new drones are autonomous, which means that the drone, using AI rather than a human operator, makes the final decision on targeting.
“The Hornet’s AI-assisted targeting, which allows the drone to classify and engage vehicles autonomously in the final phase of its flight, makes it particularly effective in conditions where electronic jamming would otherwise blind a remotely piloted system,” explains Dylan Malyasov in Defence Blog.
The Hornet is one of a myriad of advanced drones that the Ukrainians are using.
‘Kill zones’
“We work in ‘kill zones’ defined by the Ukrainian military,” explained an AI drone entrepreneur I recently met. In other words, if an area is designated as enemy territory, then the drone will drop its payload on anything that moves.
The number of Russian soldiers being killed has rapidly increased, to the point where British defence sources believe that Russia can no longer replace soldiers at the required rate.
From the Ukrainian point of view, there is no ethical dilemma - they just need to push the Russian invaders back out of their country.
But the implications are two-fold.
First, should we enable machines to make decisions? What if a civilian happens to be in the ‘kill zone’? The entrepreneur admitted: “That is my nightmare.”
It’s also why Nato has not authorised the use of autonomous weapons. Or at least, not yet. But, more immediately, when will the Russians develop their own autonomous drones?
Last year, I met a group of young people in Kharkiv who were developing new drone technology in a secret underground office space. They showed me a Russian drone that they were reverse-engineering.
The Russians catch up quickly - every time the Ukrainians get the advantage, they work on counter-measures and similar or better offensive technology. So, what will happen when the Russians develop autonomous drones using AI?
I fear that the first place in the ‘kill zone’ would be Kherson, with its brave or foolhardy civilians who refuse to leave.
And that will just be the start of it.
 | A guest post by
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The leapfrogging of technology has distant echoes from the First World War and aircraft. Like drones these were new and the Germans and British engineers competed on all aspects of the aircraft: speed, the ability to fire a machine gun through the propellers and radio communications with the ground troops. I record an anecdote in my book Dunkirk to Day. This tells the story of the leaders of army supply in WW2 who had also served in WW1.