After day one we know - Andy Burnham will be pragmatic when it comes to Donald Trump.
Burnham’s first speech after he knew - almost for certain - that he would become Prime Minister actually came in the early hours of 19 June. Climbing onto a stage as a new MP, he set out a vision for Makerfield, and also for the country.
I was watching from my home in Washington DC, and as US editor for Channel 4 News, I was particularly interested to hear one line. Burnham promised to turn “away from the path that takes us to a divided, dark politics of the kind we see in the United States”.
That felt punchy to me, especially after watching how Sir Keir Starmer bent over backwards to please the American president, Trump. Was this a sign that Burnham would take a different turn?
Actually, no.
While that early signal may have sent a shiver down the spine of the many diplomats whose job it is to maintain smooth relations between the UK and the US, Burnham was soon on message.
How to get Trump to like you
In a Times column, less than three weeks later, he stated that “our relationship with the US will remain critical as our most important defence and security ally”. And then came yesterday - day one - and a phone call with Trump within the first hour of his premiership.
One source suggested the PM had quickly understood “which side his bread was buttered on”. They argued that while things may shift in the future, right now the US invested more in Britain than any other country.
And it is not just economic ties that run deep but intelligence and defence ones too, they said, claiming that is why it is better to stay on the right side of Trump - however tempting it might sometimes be to give him a (metaphorical) kick.
They also acknowledged, however, that you don’t want to be a “total toady”.
So, how do you get Trump to like you without giving him everything that he wants?
On the call, Burnham started softly - with football, congratulating Trump on a successful World Cup. Then to another favourite topic - Manchester, and a well-received invite for 2027.
There was the promise to increase defence spending - mentioned in Burnham’s Downing Street speech - and signalled through the appointment of John Healey as Chancellor.
They stressed that Trump was an Anglophile and also suggested that Burnham’s rhetoric around deindustrialisation would naturally appeal to the Vice President, JD Vance.
But those are the easy bits. What about immigration, climate policy and, perhaps hardest, Iran?
Pragmatic approach
On energy, Burnham seems prepared to move the rhetoric at least.
The suggestion he will green-light two oil and gas drilling projects in the North Sea may not be a huge departure from Starmer. But it feels like a flashing signal that has delighted Trump and alarmed climate experts.
One told me the projects would only have a small impact on emissions (because there is so little left to drill) but allowing them would send a “terrible” message to developing countries.
“How can we ask them not to drill their much vaster resources, when we say we will extract every last drop?” they said.
Meanwhile, Iran inevitably came up on the call - with an update from Trump and promised help on the Strait of Hormuz from Burnham. But what happens if more is asked for? After 10 nights of US strikes, what is next and will Britain help?
Starmer allowed Trump to use British bases for defensive purposes, but if the US acts on Trump’s threats to hit power plants, for example, that would be a game changer. Then Whitehall lawyers may be warning the PM of a breach to international humanitarian law.
What would Burnham say then?
Diplomats and advisers are no doubt steering him towards this pragmatic approach and will be delighted by a positive Truth Social from Trump last night.
But they all have their flak hats ready - knowing full well that this unpredictable President could change his mind, at any moment.
Good points until you described America as the "greatest and biggest democracy in the world". It is certainly the biggest, but there is nothing great about it. In fact, there is an argument that it is a failed or declining democratic model.
Money buys power in America, and Presidents are chosen on the back of 7 swing states. There is also the question of the famed Constitution no longer being fit for purpose. It so far has allowed a convicted felon, fraudster and sexual predator to become President, so there is no clear fit and proper person test.
This is a President that has then ignored the Constitution and used the position to enrich himself, his family and his friends with extreme insider dealing. He bypasses Congress and the Legal system can barely keep up with his illegal acts.
He ran on a campaign of ending 'forever wars' and yet he has attacked several countries, and started an illegal war. He has threatened neighbours and bullied allies, and imposed impossible tariffs on previously friendly nations. All of this with executive and autocratic power. These are the machinations of a dictatorship and not a democracy. So forgive me if we don't all buy into this tripe about America being great. Being big does not equate to being great, but lots of Americans have lost sight of that.
Trump is not a manageable commodity. You either do what he says or you don’t, if you don’t he will punish you if you do it will almost certainly be against your own interest.
Until politicians realise this we will continue to meander a path of least resistance which makes us all look weak.
Roll on 2028 and perhaps the adults will regain the greatest and biggest democracy in the world and we can all breathe again.