Trump and Putin’s diplomatic dance over Ukraine ‘peace’
The initial American Ukraine peace plan has been tweaked, removing some of the most pro-Russian clauses and Moscow has now signalled it won’t accept it. There is a deal to be made. Can Trump make it?
It doesn’t look as if we will get an Ukraine peace deal by the time President Trump tucks into his Thanksgiving turkey on Thursday. That was last week’s deadline.
A deal might even evade the second festive turkey of the year at Christmas.
But a few things have become obvious thanks to the diplomatic fandango of the last week.
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The initial American 28-point plan has been tweaked to a 19-point one, removing some of the most egregious pro-Russian clauses.
The Ukrainian army would now be capped at 800,000 soldiers not the original 600,000. The latter was big by European standards but not big enough to deter another Russian invasion. Any ceding of territory will be settled at a later stage. The deployment of European troops on Ukrainian soil, to ensure a ceasefire holds, will not be ruled out.
‘Wish list’ whittled down
Russia’s ‘wish list’ has been whittled down to such an extent that Moscow has signalled it won’t accept the latest plan.
They sound disappointed that their dreams have not come true.
The fact that they even thought they might come true can be laid at Trump’s door.
From the start, the US President was impatient about a peace deal, to stop the killing and ensure a smooth passage to the Nobel Committee.
Some in his administration, especially Vice President JD Vance, have been downright hostile towards Ukraine and President Zelenskyy, even before they took office.
Others like Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and, belatedly, Jared Kushner - Trump’s son-in-law - see a peace deal as a business opportunity.
‘Insecurity’ of European geography
None of the above has taken into account that almost four years of war have represented a sacrifice in blood that cannot be ignored.
They either don’t care much about Europe’s security or they believe that European leaders have not done enough to earn their respect.
They don’t grasp the sense of insecurity created by European geography. A large ocean between you and the theatre of war can do that. It is a nine-hour drive from Berlin to Lviv in western Ukraine.
And so from the very beginning of the second Trump administration, the President and his entourage have been closer to Moscow than Kyiv or Berlin and Paris on the issue of war.
“I don’t believe that Trump is a Russian asset. But I do believe he is an asset to Russia.”
I don’t believe that Trump is a Russian asset. But I do believe he is an asset to Russia. Perhaps he just believes that ‘great leaders’ should rule while lesser mortals do as they must. Might is right in TrumpWorld.
As a result, European leaders have spent far more time this year negotiating with Donald Trump, kissing his ring and using flattery to keep him engaged and keep them from being abandoned.
A diplomatic ‘two-step’
Long gone are the days when European leaders could count on American support and a convergence of values.
There was a telling point in the plan last week which had the US negotiating with Russia and Nato, forgetting that the USA is the most important member of the Alliance. It sounded like one of the points that had been added by the Kremlin in Russian.
So every time there is a peace initiative, a dance follows, a kind of diplomatic two-step. The Americans and the Russians agree on a plan. After some outrage and flattery, the Americans and the Europeans (plus Ukraine) agree on a tweaked plan, which the Russians then say ‘nyet’ to.
“After some outrage and flattery, the Americans and the Europeans (plus Ukraine) agree on a tweaked plan, which the Russians then say ‘nyet’ to.”
These plans are not the same plan. And everyone returns to square one as the nightly bombardments continue and the war ploughs on, killing or maiming thousands of troops on both sides every week.
War fatigue and scandals
The administration set the tone at the beginning by not wanting to include those pesky, tricky Europeans in the talks nor indeed by giving Ukraine a seat at the table.
Having said all that, it is possible that extreme war fatigue on the Ukrainian side, where the President has also been crippled by a devastating corruption scandal, and war fatigue on the Russian side (plus a desire to return to the economic fold) will persuade both sides to make peace.
But for now the US is not behaving like an honest broker.
Putin still thinks that time is on his side and the Europeans are anxious that a hasty deal to suit an impatient US President will hurt them a few years down the road.
Surely, European leaders by now should grasp that they need to look after themselves.
And Ukraine has to use all its remaining resources to pursue an acceptable peace that doesn’t feel like capitulation.
There is a deal to be made. Can Trump make it?
TrumpWorld: Could the Witkoff leaks upend Trump’s Ukraine Russia peace deal?
After three years of war, could a Ukraine peace plan really be within reach? In this episode of Channel 4 News’ TrumpWorld podcast, we break down President Trump’s controversial 28-point peace proposal and the shockwaves it’s sending through Kyiv, Europe and Moscow. We look closely at the security guarantees being floated, but at what cost for Ukraine? And will the new revelations from Witkoff’s Ukraine leaks jeopardise progress?
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I’m sure the only outcome for Russia is total capitulation by Ukraine, all Trump wants is Ukraines natural resources for his own, not Americas, personal gain. Putin won’t relent to anything other than he personally gets the resources himself.
USA late to the first, late to the second, now withdrawing completely without understanding that Europe and NATO is their security buffer, which they have responsibility to uphold for their own National and international rules based order.
They are now AWOL and Europe, and I include us the U.K. are the biggest economic and territorial bloc facing our age old foe in an existential fight to the death.
Fight or be driven asunder.