Why shutdown of key Atlantic current could provoke dramatic climate reaction

Scientists on the Royal Research Ship Discovery are monitoring a key Atlantic current. Chief Correspondent Alex Thomson, who is with them, says the analysis sends a shiver down the spine.

On the aft deck (afterdeck) of the Royal Research Ship Discovery, they are over more than 10,000 feet of Atlantic Ocean. But they have to hit the precise spot.

So the business of laying out a string, a weighted cable of floats and scientific gear that will hang in the ocean for two years gathering vital data on the vast AMOC current, is painstaking.

Finally, the countdown begins from half an hour out, right down to the final 10 seconds, all the while manoeuvring a large oceangoing research ship to the final few metres before the command from the bridge.

“Three...two...one…drop, drop, drop!”

That’s one side of it on the aft deck. Up on the bridge, a couple of hours later, you see the other end. Finding the exact spot where cables of monitoring equipment have been released carefully to float gently to the surface after two years gathering vital current data in the deep.

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Shiver down the spine

It comes down to a bizarre game of hide-and-seek, almost everyone on the bridge, from captain, expedition chief scientist, indeed, anybody else around to help, scanning the endless waters with binoculars.

Finally floats appear, and then it comes down to grappling hooks. As the vessel edges close to them, delicately hauling on board containers which have two years of ocean life as well: crustaceans, carpets of tiny shrimps, sea urchins, starfish and crabs.

On board research ship monitoring impact of climate change on key Atlantic current

They tell us, sometimes the floats have shark bites or come up entangled with fishing gear. This is an unforgiving and difficult environment, but this research is already throwing up telling data.

In the lab, midships, we see analysis and computer modelling which, despite the clear blue skies here and temperatures of around 70 Fahrenheit, send a shiver down your spine.

At his workstation, Expedition Chief Scientist, Dr Ben Moat, introduces us to the key fundamental graph stretching out 20 years and more - since 2004, when this painstaking British research began.

You don’t have to be any kind of expert to read the trend left to right from 2004 across 20 years: the lines and the averages are descending, they’re falling inescapably.

Melting ice caps

The AMOC current, which does so much to control the climate of Europe, is weakening year on year. The question is, how and to what extent this is happening because of the other phenomenon which we know is happening, the melting of the Greenland and Arctic ice caps caused by our industrial pollution: the burning of coal, oil and gas, fossil fuels.

If that graph isn’t telling enough, there is something else. Do you remember what you were doing in 2009?

Well, here’s what AMOC was doing, entirely caused by natural phenomena, as far as we are aware. That year, the AMOC underwent a radical weakening, in a “perfect storm” of unusual atmospheric conditions.

How Western Europe’s winters could become as cold as Canada with Atlantic current weakening

The graphs show a massive dipping. National Oceanography Centre scientists aboard believe this was caused by a coming together of various atmospheric and weather phenomena which stopped the current pretty much.

And here’s the thing - that was 2009.

The very next year - 2010 - saw the coldest December in the UK for a century.

Moreover, simultaneously across the Atlantic, the sea level along the New York City waterfront rose 13 centimetres.

So, we have been warned.

The data, proof, analysis, the evidence of physics is laid out in front of our eyes.

For all those who say this is all maybe, possibly, we’re not sure and we don’t know: we do know.

@c4newsThere’s increasing scientific consensus that the melting arctic ice, caused by human pollution, is flooding the North Atlantic with millions of tons of freshwater which appears to interfere with the AMOC current - a vital system which circulates sea water across parts of the world. Some scientists believe its total collapse could spell arctic winters for Europe. #AMOC #ClimateChange #AtlanticOcean #GlobalWarming #C4News

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Dramatic

When the AMOC shut down because of natural reasons, the reaction of our planet, both sides of the Atlantic, was, to put it mildly, dramatic. Of course there were atmospherics also in play. But scientists now believe that AMOC near shutdown was a significant contributory factor.

Which means in the lab here they are desperately modelling to try and answer the key question, what happens if our continuing pollution of the planet should cause this current to do a 2009 and then some, to shut down long term, possibly permanently.

The boss of the UK’s National Oceanography Centre, based in Southampton, is on board.

We are keen to know, when you see evidence like we’ve laid out above, and then these scientists see political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic seeking to deny reality, deny physics, deny data, deny their very work - what on earth goes through their mind?

We stand on the foredeck with CEO, Professor John Siddorn, who chooses his words carefully, setting out how the business of government is to protect its citizens and how he believes the public supports fact-based, science-based decision making.

He says he’s confident the present government is comfortable doing that, which rather leaves the future just hanging in the sea air here. The public, as he sees it, may well desire government policy based upon sound data and analysis - but in the future, are they going to get it?